Calcutta: Complete military control over sprawling East Pakistan-with its swamps and marshy lands in the south, hilly jungle terrain in the northeast and its myriad rivers and canals will always be near impossible. And, understandably, West Pakistani forces seem content to control only major towns and strategic points along the Indian border.

Apart from sporadic commando raids launched by the Mukti Fauj (Liberation Forces) on isolated posts and the blowing up of minor bridges and culverts, so far there has been no serious threat to the Pakistani army. The newly-formed Liberation Front is yet to field its guerillas and the focus of conflict, meanwhile, seems to have shifted to the Indo-Pakistan border across which guns have boomed several times resulting in the killing of a number of Indian Border Security Force men.

However, Pakistani success in militarily crushing the "Bangla Desh" movement has not been matched on the political plane. Even though President Yahya Khan has announced he is "determined to hand over power" to the civilians, his search for obliging civilians remains largely fruitless. His kite-flying speech on May 25- suggesting that the ban on the Awami League did not automatically outlaw MNAs (Members of the National Assembly) and MPAs (Members of the Provincial Assembly) elected on the Awami League ticket and offering amnesty to those Awami League members who were "genuinely misled" - has so far met with little favourable response. Only three MNAs of Rangpur - Azizar Rahman, Nurul Huq and Suleman - who had been arrested on March 29 and rumoured to have been killed came out with statements denouncing those Awami League leaders who "colluded with Hindustan (India)" in setting up an independent government of Bangla Desh. Independence, they said, was not on their party's agenda and the people had not given their mandate for such a move.

Although this defection is a drop in the ocean there is suspicion that many of the 50 MNAs now in Pakistani custody might give in under duress and help President Yahya fulfil his promise of a civilian rule of sorts. The creation of a government including rightwing parties and "genuinely misled" elements of the Awami League with a watered down autonomy is, in any case, the best political bargain he can secure out of a bad political and not-so-bad military situation.

A compromise along this line might be favoured by Washington which has counselled Islamabad to seek a political settlement in East Pakistan before American aid can flow again. Moscow too, despite its sympathy for the victims of the army measures, has come out for "a peaceful solution of the problems". The solution the Russians have in mind is anything but an independent Bangla Desh. The leaders of the Bangla Desh government who had put much store by Moscow's support were shocked to read the official Soviet weekly New Times which termed dismemberment of Pakistan as mere "hopes of certain imperialist circles". New Delhi also has resisted strong pressure for immediate recognition of Bangla Desh. Speaking in parliament in late May, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi stressed the need for "bringing about a political solution to the problems of East Bengal". Union Rehabilitation Minister Khadilkar further clarified New Delhi's stance: "None of the Big Powers want to see Pakistan dismembered. India had to act in this perspective."

With Bangla Desh refugees pouring into India at the rate of 100,000 a day New Delhi had, more than any other country, a vested interest in an immediate solution to the crisis. The Indian government has been spending Rs10 million a day for the refugees, a rate which would soon put the Indian economy in serious trouble. The Rs600 million allocated for this problem in the national budget recently might prove to be just the beginning of an incurable ulcer.

Thus while the Soviet, American and Indian views on Bangla Desh seem to demand political compromise, the Bangla Desh government may be left with no other choice than to climb down from its stand for independence.

Meanwhile, the mystery surrounding the whereabouts of NAP (National Awami Party) leader Maulana Bashani has to some extent prejudiced the prospects of the leftist National Liberation Front. High ranking NAP leaders at the turn of the month were frantically looking for the old leader to get his formal approval for the front. West Bengal's CPM (Communist Party Marxist), ideologically close to the NAP, has taken up the question of Bashani as yet another issue in its campaign against the coalition government in West Bengal led by Ajoy Mukherjee of the Bangla Desh. One CPM member of the state assembly charged the government with having put Bashani under house arrest in Calcutta. Two days later a Calcutta daily, the Hindustan Standard, published an exclusive interview with Bashani and claimed that it "gave lie to the CPM accusation" about his arrest. The CPM evening daily, Ganasakti, in tum published a statement by the Maulana's son, Abu Nasir Khan Bashani, lamenting his unsuccessful effort to see his father although he had learnt that he was in Calcutta.- N C