New Delhi: India and Pakistan are not "at war"; but the mounting number of border incidents and the increasing ferocity of the attacks and counter-attacks clearly prove there is a state of undeclared war. And though neither side is anxious to have a showdown, this might come about through some miscalculation - which either might make.

The first week of November witnessed massive encounters between Mukti Bahini (Bangla Desh forces) guerillas and Pakistan troops. Large areas of the Sylhet and Mymensingh districts were claimed by the freedom fighters even as they sank a Pakistani oil tanker off Chittagong port. Foreign shippers have raised the insurance and war risk coverage to Pakistan ports by 100%.

Pakistan maintains there are large guerilla training centres all along the border and as the Mukti Bahini stepped up its campaign against the army, Pakistan turned more of its attention to them.

There were several incidents across the border, especially in Tripura which is almost surrounded by East Pakistan territory and has only a tenuous link with Assam, which itself is linked with the rest of India by a narrow corridor.

In the event of a major clash Pakistan will seek to push into Tripura. The airport at Agartala and three minor landing strips in Tripura are within the range of Pakistani artillery.

Hence the significance of the clash across Kamalpur in Tripura which took place towards the end of October. Indian Defence Ministry sources have stated that Indian troops are under orders not to enter Pakistan territory and whenever punitive action had been taken it was from Indian territory. Unofficial reports however say Indian troops crossed into Bangla Desh on October 31 to silence the Pakistani guns which had been shelling Kamalpur for 11 consecutive days.

These reports also said Indian army personnel had counted 75 Pakistani dead in the encounter and many had been dragged away. They put Indian losses at 12 dead. This was the largest clash since March 25 between Indian and Pakistani troops and New Delhi claimed that Pakistan army positions within seven to nine miles of the Bangla Desh border had been liquidated and that the freedom fighters were now in charge of the area.

Kamalpur was not the only indication of an undeclared war. Over Srinagar airport in Kashmir two Pakistani jets made a reconnaissance flight under misty weather conditions. A day later four Pakistani jets were seen over Punjab and chased away by the Indian airforce.

In Uri in Jammu and Kashmir there was considerable firing across the ceasefire line and India said it had lodged complaints with the UN observers. Meanwhile it was reported that Pakistani ships had been despatched to China and Rumania to collect much-needed arms and ammunition. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi said Soviet arms had been arriving in India. Everything points to an escalation in Indo-Pakistani conflict.