Srinagar: India and Pakistan have already fought two
wars over Kashmir one immediately following partition of
the subcontinent in 1947, the other six years ago. .The
first established the present ceasefire line, the second
confirmed it. Now again India and Pakistan are massing
troops and edging towards a war from which both have
much to lose and little to gain. The focus of their
differences this time may be Bangla Desh, and the
trigger may be provided by events in the east, but if
war does come Kashmir will once again be a bone of
contention.

Over 90% of those who live in and about the Vale of
Kashmir are Moslems. These are the true Kashmiris, for
the word "Kashmir" properly refers to this area alone.
To the east the thinly scattered population of Ladakh is
of Tibetan stock, Buddhists following Tibetan rites. To
the south Hindus form a majority in lowland parts of
Jammu. Three different religions: and it is religion
that shapes attitudes, and politics, within the state.
It also is the basis of Pakistan's claim to Kashmir.

Anti-Indian feelings have been more or less pronounced
among Kashmiri-Moslems. But the brutality of the
military repression in East Pakistan last March, the
killing of Moslem by Moslem, shocked and dismayed many
Kashmiris. They both feared a similar Indian reaction to
agitation in-Kashmir, and began thinking twice whether
they wanted to be under the military heel of Islamabad.
Support has consequently grown for an independent
Kashmir.

But independence for whom? The Moslems concede the Hindu
majority areas of Jammu might better be left in India,
but they include Ladakh in their hypothetical nation.
The Ladakhis, however, prefer the tolerance of secular
India to the tender mercies of a Moslem Kashmir. But if
Ladakh too were to remain part of India, an independent
Kashmir would be an economically unviable pocket-sized
area comprising the Vale of Kashmir and surrounding
mountains with a population of scarcely three million.
Such a prospect does not dismay the Kashmiris at all
-mainly because few think of it in these terms. As for
the economy, there would, they say, always be foreign
aid.

The massive presence of the Indian army, a large and
efficient police force, and the Border Security Force to
prevent Pakistani infiltration have all had the effect
of keeping anti-Indian agitation, as opposed to
sentiments, to an acceptable minimum. Early this year
over 100 members of a sabotage and terrorism ring
calling itself Al Fatah after the Palestinian commandos
were arrested, but such large-scale round-ups are rare.
A few infiltrators are intercepted, a few Pakistani
spies tracked down, but on the whole Kashmiris have
shown little inclination to risk their necks in support
of their demands. Even the massive influx of Pakistani
infiltrators prior to the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war failed
to spark off an uprising even in the Vale of Kashmir,
and Islamabad is reported to have been disgusted by the
lack of active-support.

So the Indians hive had every opportunity to display
more of the economic carrot than the authoritarian
stick. Spending on the state's series of five-year plans
rose steadily from Rs 127 million (US$17 million) in the
first plan (1951-56) to Rs751.4 million ($100 million)
in the third plan (1961 -66), after which these plans
were discontinued in favour of one-year development
programmed Under this scheme spending for the current
year (1971-72) is set at Rs329.3 million ($44 million).

Irrigation and power have constituted the major item of
spending under these various plans. Generating capacity
has increased from four megawatts in 1947 to over 10
times that figure today, but 10 megawatts are still
being purchased from neighbouring Punjab state. With the
hydroelectric and thermal power stations now under
construction eventual capacity should rise to almost 200
megawatts. A rural electrification programme is under
way to bring power to the villages, and electricity for
industry is available at subsidised rates, the price
being approximately two-thirds that of most of India.

Government subsidies, mainly in the form of price
support for farmers, enable civil servants and urban
ration holders to buy rice cheaper than anywhere else in
India. Unemployment is high, and the population
increased at an average of almost 3% per year over the
last 10-year period. Discontent runs high, especially
among the young educated unemployed, the thousands of
youths with degrees and diplomas turned out each year by
universities and colleges whose standards are often
miserably low. Many of these are rebellious and anti-
Indian. Almost all those arrested in connection with the
Al Fatah ring were young men who had grown up in an
Indian Kashmir.

A dismaying political development is the appearance of
the Jamat Islamia, in the rest of India a purely
religious organisation, as a political party to contest
the state elections in February. Its simple emotional
appeal is for the defence of Islam, but it has a
distinct pro-Pakistan bias. India must decide whether to
allow popular leader Sheikh Abdullah's banned
independence party to contest the elections under
another name thus hopefully splitting the Moslem vote,
risk a shattering Congress defeat, or let the local
bosses "take care" of the election.

The importance the Indian government attaches to the
state of Kashmir is illustrated by the visits since
August of a whole string of high officials from Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi down, and including the Defence
Minister and service chiefs. India has fears that West
Pakistan, once it is realised that the eastern region is
lost for good, or in the event of a war which would
probably result in an independent Bangla Desh, will make
another effort to take Kashmir and redraw at least a
part of the map in its favour.

The Indians for their part remain officially determined
to "liberate" the Pakistani-occupied areas. However, a
body of opinion within the government is in favour of a
settlement on the basis of the ceasefire line with minor
adjustments if Pakistan could be prevailed upon to
forego its claims to Indian areas.