Calcutta, April 12
With Indo-Pakistan relations already at breaking point foreign diplomats in India expressed fears today that the civil rebellion in East Bengal might provoke a serious border conflict between the two hostile Asian neighbours which could involve the entire subcontinent

Events are certainly moving in this direction and unless something is done quickly to halt the present trend, the two neighbours' allies, China and Russia, will inevitably be drawn into the conflict.

The situation has certainly deteriorated on the Indo-Pakistan border during the past 48 hours. Pakistan has claimed that its troops have captured members of the Indian para-military border security force in East Bengal.

India has denied the allegations, but according so latest reports from the strategic border areas (from which foreign journalists were suddenly barred yesterday) Indian troops and border security men are giving shelter to armed members of the East Pakistan Rifles.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that several members of the Indian border security force have ventured into East Pakistan in the uniforms of the East Pakistan Rifles.

India's ally, Russia, has already given her support to the Liberation Front in East Bengal. It is understood that Mr. Kosygin, the Soviet Prime Minister, has informed Mrs. Gandhi, the Indian Prime Minister, that Soviet Union will support Delhi if India recognizes the provisional government of "Bangla Desh"

But China attacked India in a Hindi broadcast from Peking yesterday and in an oblique reference to the Soviet Union warned the world that Peking would not tolerate any interference in Pakistan's domestic affairs.

The most immediate danger is that the hard-pressed members of the Liberation Front who are retreating westwards from Jessore, cross the Indian border and set up their base camps on Indian territory. The Pakistanis will certainly feel justified in following the freedom fighters across the border.

In terms of logistics Pakistan would be confronted by a nightmare. With the Indian ban on Pakistani overflights still in force, the Pakistan Army's air communications route between the eastern and western wings stretches 2,900 miles around the tip of India. And there are already rumblings that Ceylon might refuse refuelling facilities.

President Yahya of Pakistan has already moved four divisions into the east wing to fight the civil uprising. In the event of a full-scale conflict with India he would have to commit the bulk of his Army to the distant eastern province. But this would leave West Pakistan's border open to a thrust from the larger Indian Army.

In the circumstances Indian military strategists believe that President Yahya would ask Peking to create a diversion on the Sino-Indian border.