Delhi. Sept 12
Military terror is continuing in East Pakistan despite the departure of General Tikka Khan and the appointment of Dr A M-Malik as civilian governor. Effective power remains with the Army and Lieutenant-General A. K. Niazi, General Tikka Khan's aide in the repression of Bangla Desh, remains as martial law administrator.

Political suspects are still “lifted”, although care is taken to make their arrests unobtrusive. Army reprisals continue to be savage. In the last week of August, 70 suspects were taken from seven villages, lined up and shot. Their homes were destroyed.

The refugee flow across the West Bengal border goes on at the rate of 40,000 a day.

After two months of training in the border sanctuaries under Bangla Desh control, the first group of 5,000 Mukti Bahini (Liberation Army) guerrillas are operational. Armed with machine guns and skilled in demolition work, they have been selected from college graduates and high school volunteers.

They supplement the 10,000 regular troops of the East Bengal Regiment and the Pakistan Rifles, based in the forests 60 miles from Dacca and in the Chittagong hill tracts. The guerrillas operate regularly around Sylhet in the east, Rangpur in the north, and in border areas around Comilla, sometimes approaching Dacca.

The Pakistan Army is attacked by ambush. Last week the bodies of 70 officers were taken to Dacca from the north. According to Indian estimates, an average of 40 to 50 Pakistan soldiers are killed every day.

The main guerrilla targets are East Bengal's vulnerable communications and power system. Ninety percent of the culverts and small bridges on the roads linking Dacca to Comilla, Feni, Jessore. and Kushtia have been destroyed. Shipping is also being attacked.

“Although we held Chittagong port for three weeks, we did not destroy its installations. That was a mistake”, a Bangla Desh spokesman said.

The resistance within East Bengal is led by young members of the pro-Moscow Naxalites. Claims by the Bangla Desh Government that it has liberated parts of East Bengal are exaggerated. The Liberation Army occupies some territory, but only because the Pakistan Arms allows it to do so. Bangla Desh spokesmen agree that the Army can enter these areas if it wishes.

However, the guerrillas are destroying the credibility of the Pakistan Army and the military administration to maintain law and order. They are forcing the Army to spend between 20m and 30m rupees (about £1.6m) a month to keep 48 battalions in East Bengal

Young Army officers, growing sensitive to the Bengali will to resist, are beginning to question the high cost of the occupation when West Pakistan's own social and economic frustrations have not been resolved. By failing to secure East Bengal's communications, the Pakistan authorities are increasing the chances of famine in several pockets, and food shortages almost everywhere else.

East Bengal needs three million tons of rice and grain to supplement local resources, and these imports have to be moved from Chittagong to the interior. Normally 38 per cent of goods are carried by rail, 34 per cent by road, and 28 per cent on a network of rivers.

AID experts estimate that road and rail deliveries have been reduced to 10 per cent of capacity by the demolition of bridges and culverts, and the loss of vehicles. Minor officials have fled, or are immobilized by fear. All levels, resentful of the Punjabi “conquerors” from West Pakistan, work perfunctorily.

Many traders have also fled, and the breakdown of the retail trade has affected the jute industry’. Instead of being sent to factories through collectors, 1,300,000 bales of jute—one-sixth at East Bengal’s production—are being carried by peasant producers as head loads for barter in India.

Factory production is estimated at 35 per cent of capacity. The Pakistan Tobacco Company has cut output to 40 per cent. Eleven tea plantations, all situated on the border, have halted production. Others farther away limit themselves to 25 per cent of normal output.

The Pakistan Observer, published in Dacca, describes the guerrillas as “pitiless perpetrators of death and destruction ... creating a sense of insecurity with their hit-and-run raids and building up an atmosphere of chaos and uncertainty”.

Islamabad hopes to begin its second counter-offensive in October, after the monsoon. The guerrillas have the same date for a fresh campaign of attrition, reinforced by new cadres. The dim hope is that Islamabad may yet decide to negotiate a political settlement.

In West Pakistan, Mr Zulfikar All Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party, is moving towards a showdown with President Yahya Khan. Crowds surround him on his tours with petitions which often ask him not only to relieve them of their oppressions but also to punish officials who have acted “unjustly”.

Increasing unemployment, victimization of militant trade unionists who lose their jobs under the cover of the economic crisis, and higher prices are further pressures on Mr Bhutto's image as a national leader. It is one that he cannot afford to lose.

Another sign of growing frustration is the calls for political change and an end to the excesses in the East now being made by prominent public figures, including former Air Marshal Asghar Khan. Three months ago, no such criticism was heard.