LONDON.-On the Indian subcontinent a state is dying and
a new nation has been born.

The theocratic state of Pakistan is struggling to avoid
dismemberment, though it has but one unifying force
within its boundaries: the Islamic faith of the majority
of its citizens. It was in deference to religious
bigotry that the geographic and cultural monstrosity
called Pakistan came into existence in the first place.

Now the nationalism of the Bengalis has shattered Muslim
unity, set an example for the disaffected Pathans and
reduced the loyal area of Pakistan to the two provinces
of Punjab and Sind. Since India cannot cope with the ten
million refugees from East Bengal and wishes to send
them back over the border, Mrs. Gandhi has seized upon
President Yahya Khan's difficulties and by a skillful
military escalation hopes to give the new nation of
Bangla Desh the chance of self-government. The supply
lines of the Pakistan Army are hopelessly stretched and
they are being harassed by the Mukti Bahini in East
Bengal. Since the Pakistanis also face trouble in the
North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan, they
cannot long sustain Indian military pressure, As the
chances of Chinese help recede their plight is
desperate.

Pakistan has little claim upon our sympathy. She became
a state because the intransigence of Mr. Jinnah and the
Moslem League destroyed the chance of a secular all-
Indian confederation. From its foundation this
artificial state has been militaristic and bellicose and
for two decades has spent 80 per cent of its budget on
defense. Its present rulers are as stupid as they are
brutal. Instead of working for a compromise with Sheik
Mujibur Rahman and his Bengali Awami League, President
Yahya Khan unleashed Gen. Tikka Khan and the Pakistan
Army upon the hapless Bengalis in a campaign of
indiscriminate slaughter.

Last week, as if to confirm the fact that he has very
little political judgment, he banned the West Pakistan
National Awami party and arrested some of its leaders.
In so doing he has disfranchised the North-West Frontier
Province and Baluchistan, which are now disaffected and
may require watching by the already very much over-
committed Pakistan Army.

Perhaps the Pakistanis calculated that all internal
risks were manageable because of the assured support of
China. If so, they have been outmaneuvered by India and
badly served by the U.N. vote that admitted China to
membership. The Indians have exerted military pressure
at a time when the mountain passes, through which
Chinese help would have to come, are blocked by snow.

They will stay blocked for at least another three
months, which gives the Indian Army plenty of time to
intensify its military activity to the point where
Pakistan breaks.

Not that it is very likely that the Chinese have
considered sending help. It would be a bad start to
China's U.N. membership for her to become involved in an
Asian land war that might not involve only India but
also the U.S.S.R. The Chinese have more important aims
than the maintenance in power of Yahya Khan. The Sino-
Pakistan alliance has always been an opportunistic deal
between utterly dissimilar societies who believe they
have common enemies. China will not wish to be saddled
with an ally who cannot maintain internal peace and so
threatens to embroil the Chinese in conflicts which do
not affect their national interests.

The Pakistanis fear that if they wait upon events the
Indian Army will not confine its activities to the
frontier regions of East Bengal but will strike at
Lahore in an attempt to cut West Pakistan in two. India
has 29 divisions to Pakistan's 19, a million men to
400,000, command of the sea, more and better tanks and
twice as many military aircraft. Despite the excellent
quality of the Pakistani forces there is little doubt
about the result of full-scale warfare. The Indians hold
the initiative and it is to be hoped that circumstances
will allow them to use it for ending the existence of
the unitary despotism which is the present Pakistan and
bringing to birth new states with more reasonable aims
and boundaries.