Delhi, Oct 11
Mr Jagjivan Ram, Minister of Defence, has warned Pakistan that if President Yahya Khan launches a surprise attack India will extend the war to Pakistan territory.

Mr Ram's warning was issued in the context of persistent reports of a big military build-up on the Pakistan side of India’s western borders.

Addressing a meeting of the All-India Congress Committee in Simla yesterday. Mr Ram said India did not want war, but “if the madness of the military rulers of Pakistan drove them in their desperation to attack us”, India would drive the Pakistanis back on their own soil.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Pakistan has evacuated the civilian population along large areas of the western frontier region and that an unknown number of armoured and infantry divisions have moved up to the border adjoining the Indian provinces of Rajasthan and Punjab. Military activity has also been observed near the Rann of Kutch. As a consequence the Indian Army has strengthened its positions on the border.

Tension has reached a dangerous level. Both armed forces have cancelled all leave, both sides have been building up oil and petrol reserves for several months and the armies are poised on both sides of the eastern and western borders.

With nearly five of Pakistan's 15 divisions committed to East Bengal, it is estimated that President Yahya has deployed most of his remaining 10 divisions on the western frontier.

India can commit 12 or 13 of her 27 divisions to the western front. Ten mountain divisions are at present tied down in the Himalayas on the Chinese frontier and the remaining three or four divisions have been moved into eastern India near the East Pakistan border.

The Indians fear that if the East Bengal guerrillas operating from Indian bases begin to harass the West Pakistanis effectively. President Yahya might be tempted to hit back by launching a military offensive on more favourable fighting ground on the western front.

President Yahya would hope that a military conflict would force the Security Council to intervene immediately and during the subsequent negotiations the Pakistanis would insist on a package deal—peace on the western front in return for an assurance that India would no longer assist the guerrillas.

According to Indian journalists who recently toured the western front, the Pakistanis have deployed a large number of troops near strategic border bridges, particularly in the areas adjoining the Pakistan city of Lahore and the Indian town of Amritsar.

Indian military strategists believe that if the Pakistanis strike, they will do so before the passes on the Chinese border close at the onset of winter in late November. As the Chinese have assured President Yahya that they would come to Pakistan's assistance in the event of a conflict, an early action would keep the Indians occupied on both the Chinese and Pakistan fronts.

On the other hand, if the Indians decide io solve the refugee problem by pushing the West Pakistanis out of East Bengal by force, it is obvious that the operation will not be launched until the passes on the Chinese border have closed.