Washington Star/Evening Star

CALCUTTA.-As the independence of East Pakistan-to be
known as Bangla Desh- comes closer as a result of
attacks by Indian-supported rebels, the problem of its
leadership becomes sharper.

There are factional fights among exile leaders now
operating from Calcutta and Soviet pressure exerted
through the Indian government has injected into the
situation Communist elements without any significant
popular following in East Pakistan.

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

Independent Bangla Desh will have tremendous economic
problems because of inadequate resources for its crowded
people. The trouble this will create is likely to be
intensified by political infighting, keeping the
impoverished Delta region a cauldron of conflict.
The over-all leader of the region, with almost legendary
status above normal politics, remains Sheikh Mujibur
Rahman.

He almost single-handedly built up nationalistic fervor
into victory with more than 72 percent of the votes for
his Awami League in last December's elections.

VICTORY ERADICATED

That victory was eradicated when the Pakistani
government savagely suppressed the region rather than
concede escalating demands by Rahman for strong regional
autonomy.

It is uncertain whether Rahman will survive the present
situation. He is a prisoner in West Pakistan, being
tried for treason.

President Yahya Khan had shown some signs of beginning
seriously to consider negotiating with Rahman to end the
insurrection in the east. But now, development of what
had been guerrilla warfare into a frontal assault by
well-armed units that are pushing into East Pakistan
makes Yahya Khan's attitude uncertain.

DANGER TO RAHMAN

Some observers here fear that military victory by rebel
forces in the East, with or without the direct Indian
army participation which Pakistan now charges, will
create danger to Rahman's life from bitter elements in
West Pakistan. Anyway, the "Bangla Desh government" here
just across the Indian border from East Pakistan says it
is much too late for Yahya Khan to try to work out any
compromise with Rahman designed to provide a
transitional period toward independence.

Some foreign countries see a transitional arrangement
for East Pakistani confederation with the West as a
sensible way to get 80,000 Pakistani soldiers evacuated
from the East and remove some of the non-Bengali
Pakistanis there.

Both groups have earned such vengeful hatred of the
Bengalis that largescale bloodshed is likely if Bangla
Desh becomes independent.

While deploring the idea of bloodshed, exile leaders
here say Rahman would not be able to sell any
transitional idea to Bangla Desh forces even if he
himself there to recommend it.

REBEL DEMANDS

But this question of a compromise solution leading
eventually to independence, rather than fighting for
immediate and total freedom at whatever cost, is one of
the divisions within the exile leadership. Well-informed
Bengali sources report this although it is publicly
denied by Bangla Desh spokesmen.

Public demands by the rebel government are for the
release of Rahman, withdrawal of the army from the East,
complete independence and compensation by West Pakistan
for damage done in the civil war. Despite denials there
is good reason to believe that some leaders here would
accept the first two points now, counting on
independence to follow the army's withdrawal. But none
can admit it publicly.

In public they all speak with strong emotion of rape of
their sisters, murder of their relatives and other
atrocities. The time for compromise is long past, they
insist. Vengeance is the cry now.

It was because of this adamant public stand that the
Bangla Desh regime angrily denied having had any contact
with the American government, which reportedly was
exploring the possibility for a political solution with
Yahya Khan.

SOME CONTACTS

It is authoritatively known that there were some
contacts here. At one point the Indian government
offered to arrange them and it later claimed it had been
informed in advance when they were arranged separately,
But in denying this, an exile spokesman charges that the
U.S. government "is blackmailing the Bangla Desh
government." He declined to explain just what sort of
blackmail he meant. The United States as well as other
countries has been pressing Yahya Khan to find some
solution short of simply losing East Pakistan by further
fighting and possibly getting into a more general war
with India as result,

But India has been too impatient to resist launching
armed forces into East Pakistan now rather then awaiting
further diplomatic efforts.

The American approach to exile leaders has contributed
to factionalism among them.

There is a whispering campaign that the Bangla Desh
foreign minister, Khandaker Moshtaque Ahmed, is pro-
American, a very black mark in view of American aid to
Yahya Khan.

On the other hand, the Bangla Desh prime minister,
Tajuddin Ahmed, is being described as becoming pro-
Soviet. He is reported to be increasingly friendly with
Communist elements that Rahman had flatly refused to
have associated with his nationalist movement.

PERSONAL RIVALRIES

Part of such charges are personal rivalries. The fact is
that there never has been any clear line of command
beneath Rahman in his Awami League, and with him now
removed many more or less equal followers are struggling
for supremacy.

Those forces put together by the Indian army into the
main military arm of Bangla Desh are mostly former
Bengali members of Pakistan's army, border guards and
police forces, They are essentially nonpolitical and
concerned only with liberation of their homeland .

STUDENTS A FACTOR

But within the guerrilla units operating inside East
Pakistan there is a strong element of former university
students who are highly political. One of their main
leads is Abdul Rab. Students like Rab have for several
years pushed Rahman toward more radical steps like
declaring independence in early March. Most of them are
completely dedicated to Rahman and find it
incomprehensible that Rahman would compromise in any way
now.

These student radicals who are fighting inside East
Pakistan became infuriated by the way Awami League
leaders set themselves up in the relative safety and
comfort of Calcutta after March 25 instead of joining in
guerrilla fighting. Their pressure had in the last two
months forced people like Tajuddin to spend more time
visiting forces fighting across the border.

Such young radicals will be an important element in
Bangla Desh's future. Talks with them last March
indicated they are vaguely for socialism in the sense of
accepting governmental responsibility for seeing
solutions to a broad range of public problems.

COMMUNIST ROLE

The Awami League leadership tried last spring to deny
Communists any role either in the exile government or
the guerrilla forces. The main Communist organizations
are Moni Singh's Communist party of Bangla Desh and
Professor Muzaffar Ahmed's National Awami party. There
also is a leftist group led by Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan
Bhashani.

The Soviet Union, which is the main arms supplier to
India, pressured the Indian government to pressure the
Bangla Desh regime to establish last September a
consultative committee which includes these political
elements. The Indian government exercises considerable
influence over exile politics aside from arming,
training and supporting their armed forces.

The exile regime's spokesman emphasizes that the
committee through which this influence is exercised has
no power. Without being willing to say so directly, he
makes it clear that the committee was established
against the regime's wishes and there is no intention of
having Communist influence in Bangla Desh. The fear of
the Indian government, however, is that various radical
influences will gain increasing voice against the
essentially smalltown, conservative outlook of the Awami
League.