East Pakistan yesterday exploded into violence and grave political drama. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the acknowledged leader of Bengali nationalism in the province, responded heroically to the Pakistan army’s intervention with a call for resistance and a declaration of independence. By contrast, President Yahya Khan explained his decision to break off the constitutional talks and order the army into action as a move to bring the province under control. He spoke of the law and order situation “returning to normal”, as if the authority of the army could soon be asserted whatever Sheikh Mujib and his nationalist following might do. Yet already accounts finding their way across divided Bengal speak of civil war. Though the situation is confused , it does seem possible that something like civil war might result rather than the speedy and effective police action for which President Yahya hopes.

If that were to happen it would be hard to predict what the outcome might be. In civil war, military fortunes are so intimately bound up with political decisions on both sides that any military analysis of the situation is bound to be tentative. Added to this is uncertainty about which side particular units of the armed forces will take - and the extent to which there will be discontent within units at the side taken by their commanders.

It is to be expected that the main units of the Army in East Pakistan will remain loyal to the President. This is now a substantial force of about 70,000 men and it undoubtedly constitutes the predominant organized power in the province. Nevertheless, for some weeks Sheikh Mujib has been rallying the active support of the civil service and the police and there is good evidence that most members of the Bengali regiments will accept his orders. The Awami League has had its own “peace patrols” and “liberation committees” operating in the villages for some weeks. There is thus the basis for organized formations to operate in the name of the separatists and for a widespread seizure of control of the countryside and the villages.

The problem for the Army will be one of deciding what the decisive positions are and using its superior organized numbers to hold them. This must clearly include both ports and airfields to maintain supplies and reinforcements from West Pakistan. The absence of overflying rights across India is serious but not decisive, since the most important equipment must come by sea. Vast airlifts of significant quantities of military equipment are in any case beyond the resources of a country like Pakistan.

Where India will play a still more important role will be in her attitude to the official or unofficial provision of supplies to either side across the enormous border between India and East Pakistan. One must expect a studied detachment in the attitude of the government; but the militarily important fact will be what is allowed to happen as between Bengalis on either side of the frontier.

If there were to be prolonged fighting, the territory would be incredibly difficult for ground troops. East Pakistan is a mass of impassable waterways and will sternly resist any attempt to dominate with tanks and artillery. Air power, to the extent that it can be supplied and maintained, would have an undoubted psychological effect but this is always short lived. On the other hand, the Army might hope to sustain much of the authority of the central government if it could identify a small number of decisive points and dominate them. The President’s main hope then would be that a long guerrilla battle in the countryside might not prove to be in the character and traditions of the people.

Even if East Bengal were cowed for a time the demand for autonomy of some kind would not, therefore, be silenced. Yet the events of the past few weeks may have shown how much any half-way house of autonomy is possible at all, given the geographical, cultural and political separation of the two wings of the country. When they first broke away from India to form a new country what united the two wings was the fact that both of them were Muslim areas of British India. But now an East Bengal has been proclaimed which would move towards a denial or a modification of that first assumption. This may be illustrated by the bargaining over autonomy of the past few weeks. One of the East Pakistani complaints has always been that they were denied the fruits of their own trade and of their fair share of the foreign aid allotted to Pakistan. Yet once their claim to manage their own trade is conceded then questions of currency, banking, taxation and suchlike all follow. Moreover, since freedom to trade without interference from the central or federal government would mean for East Pakistan freedom to trade with India it would also follow in time that East Pakistan’s relations with India could be pursued as the province thought fit. The reservation to the central government of defence and foreign affairs would soon be eroded and at the end of the road there would be only independence.

If any half-way house were possible the chances of finding it must now be discounted and President Yahya’s optimism set aside. An independent East Bengal, divorced from the fact and the idea which created Pakistan, may eventually emerge. There are those in India who would regard this as a dangerous prospect. East Bengal has also spawned the revolutionary National Awami Party led by the Maulana Bhasani. Though the Maulana has lost his old eminence and the party is split into at least three groups there are those among them who look to China. If East Pakistan has been flung into a civil war that might go on for a long time then Sheikh Mujib’s authority may also begin to ebb and the field would be open to the exponents of peasant guerrilla warfare as a way forward. If East Pakistan is to be a success as an independent state and not lapse into a morass of revolutionary warfare it needs to be launched while Sheikh Mujib still holds the country together.

Events have pushed Sheikh Mujib to his declaration of independence. Pressure within the army may have pushed President Yahya to action he would rather have deferred. Already all the questions of national identity with which Pakistan was surrounded at its birth will be echoing in the minds of those involved. And in India too. During the gathering crisis there were effigies of Mr. Jinnah burnt in the streets of Dacca. No one can foresee where these emotions will lead.