Delhi, Feb. 17. The decision of Mr. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the West Pakistan leader, and his People’s Party to boycott the country’s first popularly elected Constituent Assembly has brought Pakistan close to the point of no return where the two distant provinces must part. This is now a real danger. The chances that Mr. Bhutto and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the East Pakistan leader, would be able to negotiate a mutually acceptable constitution in the Assembly within the 120 days allowed by President Yahya Khan have always appeared slim, but even these hopes have now receded.

There can be no doubt that unless President Yahya can mediate and negotiate a compromise between the two leaders before the Assembly meets on March 3 the country faces the threat of a large-scale separatist movement. But the chances of a compromise seem virtually non-existent. In East Pakistan Sheikh Mujibur and his Awami League of Bengali nationalists are determined to convene the Assembly on March 3 with or without Mr. Bhutto and his People’s Party. Controlling 167 of the 313 seats in the Assembly, they will technically be capable of framing their proposed constitution based on ultimate autonomy. This would leave a weak central government with only three responsibilities: defence, foreign affairs and currency.

On the other hand, Mr. Bhutto wants an effective central government. While the Bengalis would be able to force their constitutional proposals through with their majority, the document would prove totally unacceptable to the country’s western wing. Even if Mr. Bhutto took part in the framing of a constitution it is doubtful whether President Yahya could or would ratify a document forced through by the Bengalis. Mr. Bhutto in fact reflected this fear when he justified his decision to boycott the Constituent Assembly. According to the Pakistan radio he said earlier this week that he would in fact not be framing a constitution .... He went on to stipulate that he would travel to Dacca only if the Bengalis were willing to make adjustments and compromise on their six points for ultimate autonomy.

But in the circumstances no common meeting ground can be found. Sheikh Mujibur has argued and will certainly continue to argue that if Pakistan is one country the constitution must be framed according to the will of the majority of its people. He has also reiterated his determination based on his six-point programme. The real differences between the two leaders are essentially limited to whether the powers over taxation and foreign trade shall rest with the central government or the provincial governments.

Mr. Bhutto, whose popularity is founded on his anti-Indian postures, wants taxation to rest with the central government to provide West Pakistan with a strong defence machine. Sheikh Mujibur does not see why his province should have to foot half of the huge defence bill for the sake of the Kashmiris, living 1,200 miles away on the other side of India. He also questions the western province’s right to freeze the eastern province’s trade links with India because of the Punjab’s dispute with Delhi over Kashmir.

At preliminary meetings earlier this month the two leaders publicly indicated that they had not come to any agreement on these two points and the impasse has finally pushed Mr. Bhutto towards his decision to boycott the Assembly session. Sheikh Mujibur, it is believed, will almost certainly insist that the Assembly must meet on the scheduled date of March 3. If it does only a few insignificant West Pakistanis will take part in the framing of the constitution, and for all practical purposes the document will be prepared according to East Pakistan’s will.

In the circumstances, it is expected that the President will not ratify the constitution and either Sheikh Mujibur or Mr. Bhutto will unilaterally declare independence.