Dacca, March 11. The economy of East Pakistan is beginning to show severe signs of strain as a result of the restrictions on normal activity imposed by Sheikh Mujib’s Awami League which is acting as the virtual government of the province. In spite of heavy restrictions on drawing rights - businesses are limited to 1,000 rupees a month or 1,500 for salaries - banks are believed to be having difficulty in meeting all demands and even honouring each other’s cheques. Jute mills which should be buying crops and face the monthly pay day on Sunday are worried, while pride which the League takes in saying that exports are stopped because of the Customs strike is not shared by shippers.

The elation felt after Mujib’s speech on Sunday has given way to a tense wait for the next move from the President whose date of arrival here is still uncertain, although rumours are again circulating that it will be tonight.

Prices have risen steeply - rice by about 20 per cent and paraffin for cooking by 50 per cent. Many people are said to have left Dacca for villages. There is a feeling growing that the present controlled dislocation cannot continue indefinitely, although some feel that it might serve West Pakistan’s purpose if it did. Already people, not just business men, are wondering whether the break with West Pakistan need be quite so total. For example, there is no contact with half a million Bengalis in the West, who are worried about their relations.

It is difficult to give an impression here of just how liberated the province feels from the west with which there is no contact by post, telephone or telegram. Travelling in a rickshaw I was passed by a water wagon with six men hanging on the back. They called out: “Joi Bangla” (long live Bengal). My rickshaw man turned round and said: “Swadhin Bangla” (independent Bengal). I asked what the difference was between the two shouts. “No difference,” he said.

All judges here have refused to sear in a new governor - another example of Bengali solidarity which contains elements both of corporate pride and prudent bowing to the wind. The tide of feeling is both being urged on by the Sheikh and also carrying him with it. It is thought here that Yahya is coming to make some concessions to the Sheikh, but there is a wide variation on the extent to which he can. It is clear that nothing less than the Awami League’s six points envisaging a weak central government with powers including taxation and foreign trade in the hands of the province would enable the Sheikh to carry his followers with him.

But it seems doubtful whether the army, which takes more than half the national budget could allow this. The Sheikh’s supporters are claiming that Yahya will formally transfer power in the province to Mujib but this seems optimistic. It is difficult to know what extent of autonomy Mujib, who is believed still to be stopping short of independence, would settle for - perhaps for confederation with two Prime Ministers. Meanwhile, the army waiting close to the airport at Dacca. It believes that it could crush the province quickly if so ordered in spite of the continual stress placed by Bengalis on the long lines of communication. But it is also aware of the grave political consequences of that decision.

There are believed to be about two divisions here - few of whom are Bengali - plus the East Pakistan Rifles, a kind of permanent territorial army. They number about 20,000 plus those who have separate bases from the army and are armed with little more than rifles. In a showdown their loyalties might be divided. Also rumours abound of further troops arriving by air and being on their way by ship. The army is under strict orders not to provoke incidents. Last night a convoy of four vehicles, which was fetching supplies north of here and was obstructed by a crowd, turned back rather than fire. But generally the army is continuing to receive supplies through normal contractors in spite of calls from radical leaders to prevent this.

There is some concern here as to what effect tough measures by the President would have. In might mean that the initiative would pass from Mujib, who is certainly no revolutionary and whose general political philosophy is fuzzy, to more extreme groups. There are a few so-called guerrilla groups who have killed political workers in villages over the last few months and fear that a wider Naxalite movement as in West Bengal might be encouraged, particularly if Mujib was removed from the scene. There is no evidence of plans for any large-scale organised resistance in spite of the brave words of Bengalis here.

Over the past few weeks, however, a new kind of Bengali nationalism has begun, though its prospects look cloudy. If it proved possible to direct it, it could be a valuable asset to this backward demoralised province, which is too ready to blame the West wing for its troubles. East Pakistan’s population of perhaps 80 million is expected to double in 23 years in absence of effective birth control. There is no new land to cultivate: even mud-banks in the centre of the Ganges are planted with rice and towns are encroaching on what land there is. The only hopais in better seed already developed, more fertilizer, some of which is being used, and more order and irrigation.

The Principal export earner is jute for which the market is declining because of synthetic fibres. Industry has been disrupted and investment has been lost in spite of big incentives. One could cynically say that West Pakistan might be economically sensible to let the East go, but all the reserves of Bengali nationalism are going to be needed even to ameliorate the plight of this most densely populated region of the world.