Economist

India is known to be giving the Mukti Fouj—the guerrillas in East Pakistan, some help. But how much help, neither party is eager to reveal. Sanctuary, invaluable to all guerrillas, is certainly being granted, and perhaps covering fire from the Indian border security forces. Training may still be in the hands of guerrillas themselves. But since even those of them who were previously a regular part of the Pakistan army had no training with explosives, and since they have recently pulled off some spectacular bridge blowing, it is likely that Indian sappers have been providing the explosives and know-how. Certainly the Mukti Fouj needs training. The East Pakistan Rifles and the East Bengal Regiment, which have now been merged into it, have dropped their previous tactics of fighting in battle order and now operate in small groups. But it will be harder to persuade them to swallow -their regimental pride and wear civilian clothes.

The Bangla Desh “government in exile” complains it is not getting enough arms from India. Originally the Indians seized all arms coming over the border for fear that they might get into the hands of West Bengal extremists. Almost all of these have been returned to the Mukti Fouj, some small arms, grenades and mines have also been supplied. The small arms have been necessary because India can supply no ammunition to fit the guerrillas’ Chinese weapons. The most lethal weapons they have managed to extract from the Indians are a few three-inch mortars. The Indians are inhibited by the fear that arms with Indian markings would provoke Pakistan, to use the surplus stock of foreign-made weapons they still have. Those Indians who demand recognition of Bangla Desh are far from satisfied with the present scale of aid, and there are now serious pressure on Mrs. Gandhi to get off the fence.

Refugees are still flowing into India at a daily rate of 40,000 and the official total stood at 6.8 million last Saturday. Nothing like this number can be dispersed in central India. Since the official policy is to prevent the refugees from integrating with the local population and from competing in the local labour markets, the entire cost must be borne by the central government and the border states. The reckoning, either increased taxes or deficit financing, will have to come soon. But Mrs. Gandhi, foreseeing her likely difficulties in parliament, will probably not disclose, her plans for raising the money until the summer recess next month.

So far there has been no communal trouble except in Assam, where several thousand refugees were forced back into East Pakistan. Political parties have been unusually cooperative in toning down their statements, but the Hindu communalist Jan Sangh party is to start agitating from the beginning of next month; and the slightest incident could spark off rioting against the 60 million Indian Muslims. Mrs. Gandhi has even had trouble within her own Congress party. This was effectively quelled last week, but she cannot afford to ignore these pressures with the ten states assembly elections coming up within the next nine months.

Up now Mrs. Gandhi has been able to point to various external factors that might encourage the refugees to turn home. First, it was hoped that the war effort would break the Pakistan economy and force the withdrawal of the Pakistan army. Failing that, foreign aid donors would force President Yahya to see sense. Then it was hoped that the monsoon would bog down the Pakistan army and help the Mukti Fouj. But now there is wild talk about a war being cheaper than feeding millions of refugees. The government itself has not been party to this sort of nonsense, but it seems genuinely undecided what to do. Even the policy of stepping up help for the guerrillas carries the risk of creating more refugees as the Pakistani army takes reprisals for sabotage. It could also jeopardise the goodwill India has earned by shouldering the refugee problem.