Islamabad: Elections will be on October 5, but former
air marshal Asghar Khan, who emerged as an opponent of
former president, Ayub Khan, in 1968, reckons the
chances of a return to democracy are less than 50%
because it will take more than the 120 days stipulated
by President Yahya Khan for the elected to frame a new
constitution.

With an eye to neighbouring India and Ceylon, Asghar
suggested that it was time for the women to take over as
"men have miserably failed to come up with a
constitution during the 23-year history of Pakistan"

Meanwhile another ex-air marshal has presented his
credentials to the voters. Nur Khan, a Yahya deputy
after the imposition of martial law last year, and later
governor of West Pakistan, eventually fell out with the
president. Introducing himself as a political beginner,
Nur described Pakistan's society as being "more immoral
than ever" and said it was a matter of national shame
"that we have allowed a tiny privileged class comprising
less than 1% of our total population to govern us for
the last 23 years and to deny any form of participation
to the remaining 99%".

His somewhat rebellious advice was to "oppose authority
openly and fearlessly whenever it trespasses the bounds
of justice and fair play and thus secure a reversal of
its unjust policies and actions".

The retired marshal was not forgetting that he was for
quite a long time among the 1%. Quoting the words of
Caliph of Islam Hazrat Abu Bakr, Nur said: "I am not the
best among you. I need all your advice and all your
help. If I do well, support me. If I err, counsel me."

His answer will come when he contests the elections as a
member of the Council Moslem League.

The voter's choice is wide. Apart from the two ex-air
marshals and at least five former army generals, they
are being wooed by about 20 parties, to say nothing of
the self-appointed "leaders". Those less pessimistic
than Asghar Khan are hoping that by election day, the
number of factions will have been reduced to five or
six, thus making it easier to establish a solid basis
for a parliamentary system. What is really worrying is
that scarcely any party can claim strongholds in both
East and West Pakistan.

Awami League Leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, for instance,
the eastern half's most ardent autonomist, had large
audiences when he recently toured West Pakistan but he
was received very much as a distant relative.

Even the old Moslem League of Pakistan's founder,
Mohammed Ali Jinnah, now consists of three independent
factions, mainly operating in West Pakistan. The
leftwing parties, in the East Maulana Bhashani's
National Awami Party and in the West ex-foreign minister
Ali Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, have a lot of
internal troubles. Bhutto so far has completely failed
to gain a footing in the East.

The only group with well-organised followers in both
halves is perhaps Maulana Maudoodi's orthodox Jamaat-i-
Islam. This organisation, however, has a somewhat fatal
bent for martyrdom and fights against its opponents not
only with words but sometimes in jihad (holy war) style.